Playing with stats

The Cardinals are:

17-10 when Adam Wainwright starts. 16-10 when Braden Looper starts.
So they’re 33-20 with the front of their rotation, and 34-47 when anybody else pitches.

Another way to look at it, though. They are:

4-15 with Anthony Reyes and 5-17 with Kip Wells.
So they’re 9-32 with the back end of their rotation, and 58-35 when it’s anybody else pitching.

Still another way to look at it. They are:
45-23 when a member of the 2006 bullpen (Wainwright, Looper, Thompson) starts.

Or another way. Out of the current six-man rotation, they are:
37-22 when Wainwright, Looper or Pineiro starts, and
9-21 when Wells, Maroth or Mulder (obviously 0-0) starts.

Just some different ways to look at the same data. All calculations, done in the 9th inning today, assume the Redbirds do not, in fact, score 11 runs in the bottom of the ninth.

-M.

22 Comments

Am I the only one that thinks this 6 man rotation experiment is Tony’s way of throwing in the towel? We need Wainwright, Looper, and Pineiro out there as frequently as possible. September is NOT the month for experiments.

are the cardinals ever going to learn their lesson!!!!!!!! stop running kip wells out there every 5 days, its not worth the risk that he MIGHT pitch a good game. his bads WAY outweigh his goods. get someone else in there ANYONE!!!!!!!!!

OK folks, can I please ask that this not simply turn into a place to rant.

If you have alternatives, if you have actual suggestions (like Zoop does), please, feel free. Discussion is good. Rants are not.

Thanks.

-M.

Neither Reyes nor Wells seem to be able to get past the 3rd inning. Soo…..why are they still on the roster?

Call it a rant if you must, but I agree with osoflaco…

Reyes and Wells aren’t worth a bag of used balls.

the birds are really between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the rotation. The problem: we only have 3 trustworthy pitchers (ww, looper , and piniero), but we need 5 starting pitchers to finish this long, final stretch. So, I’m afraid everyone is just going to have to deal with the poor performances, and hope that when we do see those bad outings, we can at least save the bullpen.

All I can say is that I hope that this start is going to help us shape the rotation for 5 guys. Right now, it looks to me that we should set it up to be AW, Looper, Pinero, Mulder, Maroth/Reyes/Wells. I figure mix in the 3 of them in the last spot depending on how well the other does or how well the rest do in the pen.

OK, osoflaco, I’m deleting your post. I don’t condone name-calling here.

One more time. DON’T RANT. DON’T INSULT OTHER READERS/WRITERS/FANS. DON’T MAKE IT PERSONAL. I simply will not tolerate it. Discussion is good. Angry ranting, yelling and name-calling are not. I don’t know why people think it’s OK to act here in ways they would (hopefully) never act if they were having a conversation with someone face to face.

-M.

Or another way to look at it…

Maybe the six starters aren’t as much a “rotation” as a pool of possibilities. Stop laughing, and stay with me here… :-)

There’s no way in the Universe that TLR is throwing in the towel on the season. The man who lives by “play a hard nine” (with days like today as possible exceptions), would never lay down just two games back with 5 games still to play against the Division leader. More to my point, my guess is that Tony’s objective is to winnow down the starter pool to those who demonstrate themselves most reliable in the weeks to come. This isn’t as much “experimentation” as trial by fire.

Wainwright and Looper get a free pass here. As Matt so compellingly established, they are, statistically speaking, the team’s two best starters.

At this point, Reyes and Wells may have lost out on starts for the remainder of the season, with the only caveat being that they provide a hedge against Mulder experiencing a serious failure to launch.

Who knows what Maroth’s going to bring back to the bigs. He’s got a great attitude, if that counts for anything.

The fact is, the Cardinals have a glut (albeit, a mostly mediocre glut) of pitchers at the moment. I respect La Russa and Duncan for making the most of what the team has — especially when pitching talent is mostly thin — like now, for instance.

The Brewers crashed and burned today and the Cubs are going down in flames as well. The Cards are still 2 GB with 28 to play. Grab a cold one and lighten up, my friends. The best is yet to come.

Thanks Matt. I’m not being quite literal in saying Tony’s giving up the season, but he sure has a funny way of showing it with seeing who can do okay and who will sink. September’s not the month to test pitchers. I consider April-August a test for Wells, and he failed. Nothing personal against him, of course, but he failed.

My starting five would be…

1. Wainwright — Been saying it since Carp was out, he’s the ultimate #1 guy. He gets hit hard sometimes, but even when he does, his damage control is good. Chances are, he’ll continue to battle when he’s in trouble–something we’ve seen out of Kip maybe four times this year. A-

2. Looper — He’s a solid innings guy. 6 to 7 innings seems to be usual as long as his location is on target. Anybody that saves the BP some work is great by me, even if his ERA is in the 5s, much less the low-to-mid 4s. B+

3. Mulder — A total question mark but he deserves the spot, obviously. Give him innings, as he’s not worse than Maroth, Wells or Reyes. He needs innings to get back on track, which I believe he can achieve sooner rather than later.

4. Pineiro. I was on the fence, but he’s been good. He’s fun to watch (not as much as Wainwright, but c’mon… that 12-6 drop makes me melt like a Scarlett Johansson romantic comedy… did I say that out loud?), and he obviously plays hard ball. I appreciate that, and he even reminds me of Suppan with his swagger. Nothing to back that up, obviously, just a feeling. B

5. Reyes/Maroth — Wells is done. Experiment failed. Like I said, nothing personal, I’m sure he’s a great guy, but he’s listless when doing interviews. It’s like Eeyore on Nyquil, which is what his performances remind me of. Reyes HAS good stuff. I’m not giving up on him, so give him innings. Maroth hasn’t won me over for many years (my gal’s folks are from Bay City, MI, so I’ve followed the Tigers for about 5 years fairly closely to have small talk for her Pops), but he hasn’t let me down completely, so I’d be willing to give him some starts to see if he’s got it or not.

Also, I agree with mathdude… We play in the weakest division in the league. The Cubs always fail in September and the Brewers are a sinking ship and have been for months now. We’ve got a good chance, but we’re only as strong as the guys we send out to the mound every day. If we had Carp, this division would be in the bag, but we don’t. Tony’s decisions here will determine our place in October, because it will shape our team entirely: ring owners, division champs, or golfers. We have a great line-up full of energetic kids, so it’s up to our arms to carry us.

Here’s a suggestion, how about we set our rotation to being: Wainwright, Looper, Pineiro, Wellemeyer, and Mulder. I think that this rotation is actually 3043479837047309847307489374370 times better than our current rotation simply due to the fact it doesn’t have Wells and Reyes in it. This is not a rant, it’s common sense, Wells and Reyes simply aren’t good pitchers at all, we got rid of Marquis because he pitched like that and in return we got 2 of him to take his place, my question is why?

I actually agree with Crazy up to a point. Wellemeyer hasn’t started in a while, wouldn’t mind keeping him in the pen. Then again, I guess our options aren’t great, but a 5th spot doesn’t really matter, he usually is the worst starter. I would actually like to have Thompson back in the rotation. He seemed to be doing well starting in the minors.

My suggestion:

Wainwright, Looper, Piniero are obviously in the rotation. After that, try out Mulder. Assuming he works out – and he doesn’t have to be stellar to earn a spot over Reyes and Wells right now – then we have 4. I say try Maroth out as we have planned this week. If he works out, great. We have 5. I’m good right there, but as much as I don’t like it, I understand the fatigue factor for the front-end guys that is making Tony try 6 starters.

So, while the rotation is working through this week, immediately have Wellemeyer pitch a simulated game and hit the 85 pitch mark. Let’s see if he can get stretched out in time for a sixth man start or to bail out Mulder or Maroth. However, under no circumstances do we let Wells and Reyes pitch again this year.

We are in it for our lives, and we just don’t have the time to risk on them. Every game is too important. I’ll take a tired Wainwright or Looper ANY day over pitchers who just haven’t been effective. I like ‘em both, but the facts are the facts and the facts are this:

Reyes doesn’t get his arm loosened until the third inning, which means his release point is too low and he’s grooving it. When it’s loosened, his release point is higher (similar to a tired arm having a better sinker, but in the shoulder action – a loose arm naturally flails out higher) and the ball goes high to low. Wells just can’t locate his fastball. He has no control over it. Too much action on it and his failure is just compounding his problems psychologically. So…that’s the facts, Jack.

I’ve been on the dumping Wells bandwagon for quite a while now. But we’ve had some rough times this year and couldn’t afford to stop him from pitching. But NOW would be a nice time to stop that, if you want any chance of limping into the postseason and making the season a complete failure. We could’ve gained ground today on both the Brewers and Cubs…but again failed to step it up when we needed it. My thing with Wells is…he was a decent pitcher a few years ago but even then was on a losing ball club. He’s never played for a real winner…ever. So why are we having a six man rotation when we’re guaranteed to lose every two of 6 starts? The other being Maroth…because he’s not much better. Unless those pitchers have forgotten we don’t have the kind of offense that can you bail you out with 10 runs every game.

Sounds like we’ve got a ringer amongst us — former/current pitching coach, kevin?

Enjoyed your analysis, especially on Reyes and Wells, BTW. Concision is a thing of beauty. You might want to give Dunc a call ;-)

I cannot understand why he keeps Kip Wells in the starting rotation. He gives up 5-6 runs by the third inning. Surely they have somebody in their farm system that can do better than him. He don’t even give the cards a fighting chance

I think that the consenses of opinion is that we will stay home and watch someone else from the central division play if we think that A. Reyes, M. Maroth, and K. Wells pitch winning baseball as starters this year. It’s perfectly obvious! Reyes may someday make it. Kip was once above average and great for the Baylor Bears. All three have placement problems and all three tip pitches. I even think that their presence effects our hitters.
Nothing personal. It’s about winning. The two pitchers just brought up..bp pitching at best. Just hope Mulder is ready. Ready to see him pitch. And Rick Ankiel, what a story! Best since Stan the Man hurt his shoulder diving for a fly while playing outfield. He was a great pitching prospectuntil the injury. Rick A. is quite a young man. Got to get back on the winning trail tomorrow. the Astros and Dodgers are doing their parts, so let’s help ourselves. Hate to see Rolen go, but he is right on his and doctor’s decisions to let it go until it can be mended. I’m confident that we have enough hungry young infielders to take up the slack. It’s not over. Go Cards!

Oh yes. A four man rotation seems best. Use those other guys for a couple of innings of relief. Very few times have we ask anyone to go over 5-6 innings. If guys can’t go out there on the mound and fight for 5-6 innings effectively, then it won’t happen anyway. Beats spotting a bunch of hungry kids like the Bucs 4-8 runs and are out of it before it can even start well. Pretty good defense among these guys and the hitting is beginning to come through most of the time. Relief? When we use our major leaguers we can darn sure spell relief!!

How about giving Brad Thompson a chance? So then the rotation would be Wainright, Looper, Mulder, Pinero and Thompson. I just don’t think that Wells or Maroth have the stuff to take us down the stretch. How many more chances is (or should) Wells going to get? What do you all think?

i don’t think brad thompson can be called up right now because he hasn’t been down long enough; i think that’s the case. Anyways, I think he is serving a punishment of sorts from TLR for hitting batters; i remember reading in the post dispatch that tony was upset that he couldn’t control his anger. Also, he had been giving up a lot of homeruns and long pop fly outs, too many for a sinker ball pitcher. I don’t know why we don’t promote wellemyer to a starters role, i think he is our best option.

12-3 when Thompson starts, 6 or 7 and 1 when Wellemeyer starts. They both deserve the shot at starting, but Thompson seems the better option because he was starting in the minor leagues, and he tended to pitch more innings then Wellemeyer. Either way, one of them should be in the rotation.

Guys, i believe we’ve called in the dogs and are about to whizz on the fire. The hunt is about over for 2007. This season has been all bout injuries, which a lot of people go through and lack of starting pitching, which all the losing teams go through. I believe that pitching mentally effects players from high school even through the pros. It doesn’t matter what a player is paid, he just doesn’t hit as well if he doubts the guy who has been given the “rock” for you can’t get the opponent out. If they think they’ll get a quality start out of a pitcher most of the time, they just play loser and hit the ball. Most of us are “made” like that. For 2008, we need to go get some pitching! Dangle a few position players in their faces and see what happens. Put more imphasis on speed, and keep our manager and coaches! A few players need to do some soul searching over the winter and decide what to do. If the National League doesn’t decide to change up the divisions, which would be absurd, we Cards just need to field a team that can win about 12 more games than we lose and get hot, like last year, at the right time. Actually, there is not a strong team in our division. We don’t have to win 88-90 games to get into the playoffs. I’ve been a Cardinal fan since 1946 and will remain one. We and the Yankees have the best thing going. We have the best fans!

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