World Series

I just officially heard it for the first time, from a radio personality here:

"I just can’t see Colorado beating Boston in a seven-game series."

Absolutely preposterous. Just simply and utterly ridiculous. Please, everyone, don’t buy into this line of thinking, because it’s foolish. Baseball simply doesn’t work that way.


The ORIOLES could beat the Red Sox in a seven-game series. The GIANTS could beat the Red Sox in a seven-game series. This is not an 80-20 proposition. No playoff-caliber baseball team is a prohibitive favorite over any other playoff-caliber baseball team. The best team in the postseason is MAYBE a 60-40 favorite over the worst team in the postseason. And the Rox, assuredly, are not the worst team in the postseason.

Are the Red Sox the better team? You bet they are. They’re deep and balanced and the best team in baseball this year. If the two teams played 200 games, I’d say there was very little chance the Rockies would beat the Red Sox in the majority of those 200 games. But they’re playing seven games. And over seven games, one good team has pretty close to an even-money chance against another good team.

Then again, later in the same show I also just heard one of the on-air talents asking whether Colorado would have an advantage in cold weather. As though the Red Sox have never played games in the cold. You know, like, in Boston in the playoffs most years. ARGH. Trust me, I was there at Fenway in 04. Brutal weather.

I need to stop listening to sports radio.

-M, see below for the TLR post.

12 Comments

I know it wasn’t supposed to be funny, but I laughed when I read this.

–Mrs. Dude

Hehe…it’s funny because I can picture Matt throwing hot dog wrappers at “radio guys” as he repeats a much longer version of this post with much passion and rolling of the eyes…

Angry Matt is Funny Matt’s twin brother…

Matt, you make a good point about this all being about a 7 game series and not a 200 game series. Boston certainly is a more balanced, deeper team. They have a better rotation, better lineup 1-9 (or 8, once they get to Coors), comparable pen, more playoff experience, and homefield advantage (huuuuge at Fenway). The Rox have momentum. 21 games worth, right? However, they will have been sitting idle for over a week. They will also face Beckett after sitting for over a week. Beckett is a better pitcher than Francis. The Sox also have their own momentum, and it will be 3 days fresh for game 1. I know who I’ll be putting my money on.

Well…here’s the thing…a 7 game series in baseball is SO different than a 162 game stretch because of things like “small margin for error,” momentum, etc. If a pitcher (like Beckett) comes out flat and has a bad game, look out, ’cause he’s not going to get 25 more starts to make up for the bad one. He can only hope for 1 more start…and in a 7 game series, his team may be in too big a hole by the time his turn comes around.

Also, like what happened in the Cleveland/Sox series just now, a hot team can sustain a hot streak throughout 7 games. Take the Brewers at the beginning of the season…the way they were playing, they could have beat almost anyone in a 7 game series…but the latter half, exactly the opposite.

So, the “way baseball works,” I think, is about a snapshot of a team’s record. Which team are you going to get? Are you going to get the Red Sox that dominated during stretches of the regular season, or are you going to get that team that laid down and let the Yankees get within striking distance? You just don’t know.

And, everyone wants to make a big deal out of the Cardinals only winning 83 games last year, but think about it…if we had won 5 more games (to 88 wins), no one is talking. Then, we’re just a typical, mild underdog. 5 games could have completely changed how fans remember the ’06 Cardinals.

My point is this…I think THAT is where the “60-40 at best” advantage comes in…because you just don’t know which team is going to show up in baseball, I don’t think you can say any team has a GREAT advantage over another. The Cards of ’04 won 105 games (i think?), but got swept in the World Series.

Anyone can list a hundred reasons why the Rockies or the Sox are going to win…but the reality is, you just never know…

That’s the beauty of baseball in my eyes. In October, all that matters is you got there. You don’t steal chances from anyone, you earn them. Any team can get a break or two, but the better team will take advantage of those breaks.

I hope that the radio personality is wrong. It can be done, and hopefully will be done. Just to prove him wrong…

Agreed entirely. I’m taking the Rockies simply because it’s been so long since the best team in baseball won the championship.

plus, is anyone else as tired of the Sox as I am?

Amen Brother…

BIG TIME sick of the Sox AND their fans. For 80 years they whined about “the curse”, and used it as excuse to why they always choked. Now, after one chaampionship, they act like they’re the best team that will ever be. I’m sorry. It’s just annoying, because I didn’t whine and make excuses when the Cards folded in ’04. And I didn’t walk around talking trash when the Cards won last year. I can’t stand that kind of idiotic banter. Just like the idiotic banter you hear on Sports Talk Radio most of the time. Some people just say things to hear their own voice, without putting much thought into it. It remindfs me of the ESPN commercial where the guy was talking sports out of his “lack of knowledge”.

slforre – i wasn’t trying to create a stir, and I’ve got nothing against Sox fans. I’m just tired of their co-opting the underdog status (when they have the 2nd highest payroll in the majors), and I get so tired of the hype that surrounds each Yankees/Sox series. I’ll be happy when one or both of those clubs hits rock bottom, and we who don’t have satellite packages can get coverage of other series. I’ve got lots of friends who are Sox fans, and I’ll take them over the Yanks any day, but they’re a powerhouse, and they can’t consider themselves otherwise. So they’re the favorite, and they should be. I’m not a fan of dynasties – they get more coverage than other teams that probably deserve it more, even after their star is fading, so to speak – and if they win there will be talk of a Red Sox dynasty. So I’m hoping for the 7th different WS Champ this decade.

Sorry for the soap box, M. Here’s to a quality series with thrills and plays that make you catch your breath (or rewind TiVO if you have it), and good clean baseball (as good as it can be without the Cards).

sieburg, and M- I’m sorry if what I wrote before was completely gripey (for lack of a better word). I’ve just taken a lot of b s from “exported”(or imported, however you look at it)Sox fans around my area. I know not all are the same. And I agree with you about Yankee fans. But they’re New Yorkers, so I guess I’ve come to expect it from them.

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