Lucky Seven, Halfway-home edition

We’ve passed the halfway point in Spring Training. Three weeks from today is Opening Day. Sounds like a good time for a Lucky Seven.

As always, if a question doesn’t interest you, just don’t answer it. 
1. Who pitches more innings for the Cardinals this year: Kyle Lohse or Kyle McClellan? If they’re both starters, who posts the lower ERA?
2. Assuming McClellan moves into the rotation, and assuming that Franklin, Motte and Boggs have three right-handed spots locked up in the bullpen, who will get the other two spots? Who should? (assuming a seven-man pen, and exactly two lefty relievers)
3. How many games will Lance Berkman start in the 2011 regular season?
4. What about David Freese?
5. Given the injury issues with the Cardinals, Phillies and to a lesser extent Brewers, who is the team to beat in the National League right now?
6. What’s the last good nonfiction book you read?
7. Last good novel?
-M.

10 Comments

1) Kyle Lohse and I think he’ll post the lower ERA as well. I still want to see how McClellan does deeper into games, though today was a good start.

2) I guess you are assuming Miller and Tallet from the left side, so I’ll say Batista and Salas get the last two spots. I have no reason to think anyone else should get them.

3) 115

4) 135

5) I still think it’s Philadelphia, but if I was looking elsewhere, I might argue San Francisco, being that they are World Champs and are the only team with the pitching to stay with Philly. That lineup, though….

6) Really enjoyed Pujols: More Than The Game. (My interests just aren’t that broad, you know?) Before that, though, Decision Points was really good.

7) The only nonfiction I read tends to be Star Wars and Star Trek. Fulfilling as many blogger stereotypes as possible!

Thanks for catching that lack of clarity in question 2. It’s fixed.
-M.

1. Kyle Lohse will have more IP, but McClellan will have the lower ERA. I just see Lohse staying a starter the entire season while McClellan might get some starts being back in the pen as a steady reliever.

2. If McClellan were to stay in the rotation however, I see Fernando Salas and potentially Blake King being our other two right hand relievers.

3. I see Berkman starting about a 120 games if he is healthy and still hitting decently. But if he’s struggling at the plate early on in the year, I see him only starting in about 85, appearing in much more though.

4. I see Freese actually starting 130 games too, but appearing in more. If he is hitting well, and not having a lot of fielding errors I can see him starting more, but TLR likes to mix it up in the field and batting order, so you never really know.

5. The Phillies are still the team to beat. The Brew-Crew are giving them some competition, but when you’ve got a 5 man rotation (when healthy) picturing Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Joe Blanton, you’ve got to give them the benefit of the doubt. Plus, that’s a good lineup when healthy. Heavy hitters, and good speed. If the Cardinals rotation can pick up the loss of Adam Wainwright, and Holliday and Pujols can catch a grove early, the NL Central will be an interesting race to watch.

6. Three Nights in August – digging deep into the mind of TLR. Never thought his relationship with Dave Duncan was like that.

7. I don’t really read that many novels. Nothing really catches my eyes. Don’t care about aliens, vampires, warewolves, dragons, or sci-fi stories. Not big on crime books. There’s not really a topic that catches my eye except sports, and I’d rather read a nonfiction sports book than a novel about sports.

1. Lohse pitches more innings, but McClellan has the lower ERA (higher ERA+)
2. I think Batista and and outside arm will get the two spots. I think Salas and McClellan (#givelancechants) should be there.
3. Puma starts in 90 games.
4.Freese starts 122 games.
5.Defending NL/WS Champs Giants
6.Best American Sports Writing 2010 (not really a novel)

1 I think Lohse gets more innings and I think will show more ability to go deep in games. The ERA could be a toss but I think I will give it to Lohse as well. I think he is back this year, but I don’t think KMac will be any slouch.

2 I see Batista being long/swing man and then a battle between Salas and Augenstien. I would say Lynn, but I think they will want him to keep starting.

3 80 Not sure he has the stamina left.

4 80 Gonna have to prove his health to me.

5 It’s between the Phillies still and the Giants, but the brew crew, reds (gag), cubs(gag), and Braves could make it interesting.

6 Mere Christianity, C. S. Lewis

7 House, by Frank Piretti & Ted Dekker

1. Kyle Lohse gets more innings as K-Mac is handled with care (see: J. Garcia 2010) due to innings load concern and limiting time thru the order for K-Mac. However, for the same reasons, K-Mac may have the lower ERA simply because he won’t see the 7th inning as often and the 3rd/4th turn thru the order as Lohse will.

2. Will: Snell and Salas. Should: Augenstein and Salas. Snell is likely going to get the long-reliever spot due to experience, but (and I haven’t seen a single stinkin’ pitch – thanks MLB) it almost seems Augenstein is showing better stuff and could be used to step in for a spot start if Carp et al needs a rest. Re: Salas…it seems the organization is leery of committing to him in the pen…but he keeps performing. All of this together could lead to a right-handed reliever acquisition in the next week and a half to take one of the spots. I just don’t see Snell has having a lot of up side and is a huge drop-off from the reliability/effectiveness of K-Mac.

3. I gotta’ believe Berkman is gonna’ start approximately 125 games. There will be some he’s scheduled to miss on the preventative maintenance plan and some he’ll have to miss as his body barks here and there…but the team needs him to play so he’ll play through more than, say, David Freese. I don’t see a major injury knocking him out long-term, tho.

4. Freese is likely gonna start with a plan of missing 40 games for preventative care…throw in wear and tear late in the season and occasional “pre-cautionary” hold from the lineup – plus a 2 week stint on the DL at some point…I’m thinking Freese gets maybe 100 games.

5. I think, with the injury news to the Phillies, I question the belief there is a “team to beat” in the NL this year. My bias says the Cards, but without Waino, that can’t be true anymore. Predictions and regression stats aside, I still think no one really knows what to expect from the Reds this year…but all things being equal, I gotta’ side with the rotation of the Phillies – if pushed into a corner.

6. Well…occasionally enjoying Goold’s book on things a Cards fan should know…and so far, “Play Therapy” by Gary Landreth is good stuff for the counseling world. Other than that…trying to avoid nonfiction for a while since graduation :)

7. Have to go with Towers of Midnight by Robert Jordan/Brandon Sanderson…just because we’ve waited so long for the WoT tie-up. But…does “Best of Foxtrot” count? :)

- deckacards/Kevin

1. Kyle Lohse gets more innings as K-Mac is handled with care (see: J. Garcia 2010) due to innings load concern and limiting time thru the order for K-Mac. However, for the same reasons, K-Mac may have the lower ERA simply because he won’t see the 7th inning as often and the 3rd/4th turn thru the order as Lohse will.

2. Will: Snell and Salas. Should: Augenstein and Salas. Snell is likely going to get the long-reliever spot due to experience, but (and I haven’t seen a single stinkin’ pitch – thanks MLB) it almost seems Augenstein is showing better stuff and could be used to step in for a spot start if Carp et al needs a rest. Re: Salas…it seems the organization is leery of committing to him in the pen…but he keeps performing. All of this together could lead to a right-handed reliever acquisition in the next week and a half to take one of the spots. I just don’t see Snell has having a lot of up side and is a huge drop-off from the reliability/effectiveness of K-Mac.

3. I gotta’ believe Berkman is gonna’ start approximately 125 games. There will be some he’s scheduled to miss on the preventative maintenance plan and some he’ll have to miss as his body barks here and there…but the team needs him to play so he’ll play through more than, say, David Freese. I don’t see a major injury knocking him out long-term, tho.

4. Freese is likely gonna start with a plan of missing 40 games for preventative care…throw in wear and tear late in the season and occasional “pre-cautionary” hold from the lineup – plus a 2 week stint on the DL at some point…I’m thinking Freese gets maybe 100 games.

5. I think, with the injury news to the Phillies, I question the belief there is a “team to beat” in the NL this year. My bias says the Cards, but without Waino, that can’t be true anymore. Predictions and regression stats aside, I still think no one really knows what to expect from the Reds this year…but all things being equal, I gotta’ side with the rotation of the Phillies – if pushed into a corner.

6. Well…occasionally enjoying Goold’s book on things a Cards fan should know…and so far, “Play Therapy” by Gary Landreth is good stuff for the counseling world. Other than that…trying to avoid nonfiction for a while since graduation :)

7. Have to go with Towers of Midnight by Robert Jordan/Brandon Sanderson…just because we’ve waited so long for the WoT tie-up. But…does “Best of Foxtrot” count? :)

- deckacards/Kevin

1. Kyle Lohse gets more innings as K-Mac is handled with care (see: J. Garcia 2010) due to innings load concern and limiting time thru the order for K-Mac. However, for the same reasons, K-Mac may have the lower ERA simply because he won’t see the 7th inning as often and the 3rd/4th turn thru the order as Lohse will.

2. Will: Snell and Salas. Should: Augenstein and Salas. Snell is likely going to get the long-reliever spot due to experience, but (and I haven’t seen a single stinkin’ pitch – thanks MLB) it almost seems Augenstein is showing better stuff and could be used to step in for a spot start if Carp et al needs a rest. Re: Salas…it seems the organization is leery of committing to him in the pen…but he keeps performing. All of this together could lead to a right-handed reliever acquisition in the next week and a half to take one of the spots. I just don’t see Snell has having a lot of up side and is a huge drop-off from the reliability/effectiveness of K-Mac.

3. I gotta’ believe Berkman is gonna’ start approximately 125 games. There will be some he’s scheduled to miss on the preventative maintenance plan and some he’ll have to miss as his body barks here and there…but the team needs him to play so he’ll play through more than, say, David Freese. I don’t see a major injury knocking him out long-term, tho.

4. Freese is likely gonna start with a plan of missing 40 games for preventative care…throw in wear and tear late in the season and occasional “pre-cautionary” hold from the lineup – plus a 2 week stint on the DL at some point…I’m thinking Freese gets maybe 100 games.

5. I think, with the injury news to the Phillies, I question the belief there is a “team to beat” in the NL this year. My bias says the Cards, but without Waino, that can’t be true anymore. Predictions and regression stats aside, I still think no one really knows what to expect from the Reds this year…but all things being equal, I gotta’ side with the rotation of the Phillies – if pushed into a corner.

6. Well…occasionally enjoying Goold’s book on things a Cards fan should know…and so far, “Play Therapy” by Gary Landreth is good stuff for the counseling world. Other than that…trying to avoid nonfiction for a while since graduation :)

7. Have to go with Towers of Midnight by Robert Jordan/Brandon Sanderson…just because we’ve waited so long for the WoT tie-up. But…does “Best of Foxtrot” count? :)

- deckacards/Kevin

1. Lohse. I am dubious about K-Mac’s ability to sustain a starter’s work load for the whole season.
2. Will: Salas and Batista; should: Salas and either Augenstein or Sanchez.
3. 195.
4. 90. Once fragile, always fragile.
5. Still Philadelphia, but at least five other teams are in the conversation.
6. For perhaps the first time in my life (all of which has been spent preferring non-fiction to fiction), no opinion on this one, while I do have an opinion on a work of fiction …
7. … “A Most Wanted Man,” John Le Carre. It isn’t new, but I just got around to reading it, and it’s eerily prescient.

GAH! I just realized my comment posted 3 times…and I said Snell when I meant Batista (have trouble keeping them separate in my head…ugh)…so embarrassed…SORRY! If you listen to my podcasts around the same time on http://www.cardsnstuff.wordpress.com, you’ll hear me say Batista…I SWEAR!!!

(ugh…social suicide)

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