Results tagged ‘ Stat of the day ’
Notes of the night/Stat of the day, June 13
Note of the night, 1: I touched on this a couple of places already today, including in the game story and on Twitter, but I just find it really interesting.
When Kyle McClellan came into today’s game, I had a bad feeling about it for the Cardinals because I had a perception that McClellan had struggled in tie games. No data to base it on; it just seemed that way.
Well, the amazing thing about following baseball in 2010 is that you can look up just about anything. So I did. And it’s true: McClellan has been strikingly less effective in tie games than in games where the Cardinals are ahead or behind. For his career, entering Sunday, opposing hitters had an OPS of 810 against McClellan in tie games, including a .476 slugging percentage.
With the Cards ahead, McClellan has allowed a 645 OPS and a .328 slugging percentage. With the Cards behind, the numbers are 623 and .296.
So I asked about it. Asked TLR. Asked McClellan. Honestly, I was expecting to be blown off, to have them dismiss it as statistical noise. But they both acknowledged that there might well be something to it.
“I think it’s something to pay attention to,” TLR said. “He’s probably aware of it. That’s how you learn. Maybe you try to do too much. He made a great curveball to Reynolds, and then he threw another one later. He just overthrew, missed a couple balls high, maybe trying too hard.”
Said McClellan: “I think it’s a tough spot to pitch in. especially on the road. they’re trying to lift something. They’re trying to get the ball in the air. … The hitters are in a lot different mode than when they’re behind in the game or when they’re ahead. For me, it’s one of the tougher situations to pitch under.
“But it doesn’t mean that you come out and expect to give up runs. You come out and attack everybody the same way. I wish I could pick times to give up my runs. You just can’t do it in tie games.”
I honestly don’t know what to make of it. But it’s real, and although I don’t know how to run the regressions, I’d bet that at this point it’s statistically significant.
Yet it’s a conundrum, because McClellan is at least arguably the best reliever on the team, or at least the best other than Franklin. And he’s also a pitcher who can get more than three outs on a regular basis, which is an extra valuable commodity in a tie game, since you never know how long you could go in extras.
So the Cardinals can’t run away from him in tie games. But it seems they’d at least be wise to try to pick the matchups and situations carefully.
Note of the night, 2: Dennys Reyes is in a slump. There’s no way around it. He’s faced 12 batters this month, and gotten two outs. After the game, Reyes said the main thing he sees on video is that his sinker is not sinking, and it is cutting. So pitches that should be coming in on the hands of lefties are instead running out over the plate.
“I’m leaving my pitches up, up in the zone,” he said. “I’m usually low in the zone. Most of the hits I’ve been getting are on my sinker. My sinker has been coming back. Instead of sinking, they cut a little bit. I’m frustrated about it, because I don’t think I’ve gone through a stretch like this, so bad.”
Reyes hasn’t figured out what’s causing it to happen. That’s the next step.
“I feel really guilty about this game,” he said. “I haven’t been able to get people out. I need to do something about it. I need to do something to fix that and come back and throw strikes in the low part of the zone.
“I’m doing something. I don’t know. That’s the thing that I’ve got to figure out. I’ll start to do something tomorrow. I’ll talk to Dunc about it and see if he can find something to give me.”
Stat of the day: The Cardinals are 15-19 on the road despite having outscored their opponents, 137-130 in road games.
Fun with double situational splits: Matt Holliday is 2-for-17 with runners on base in June.
And, finally, the playlist:
I went to last night’s Arizona State-Arkansas game to see some Cardinals draftees, and I’ll be writing that up in the next day or two. But on the way home XM First Wave was playing the “Saturday Night Safety Dance,” and it was even better than usual. So, five songs from that program:
Duran Duran, “The Wild Boys”
New Order, “Bizarre Love Triangle”
Camouflage, “The Great Commandment”
The Smiths, “I’m So Sorry”
Depeche Mode, “Policy Of Truth”
-M.
Note of the night/Stat of the day, June 6
Note of the night: When Brewers reliever Zach Braddock walked Albert Pujols in the ninth inning on Sunday night, it looked for all the world like the old unintentional-intentional walk. My read was that the Brewers had chosen to pitch around Pujols in order to face Matt Holliday, which to my mind was a fairly absurd decision — putting the game-ending run in scoring position with two outs and a lifetime 318/387/541 hitter coming to the plate.
It turns out that my read was wrong. Braddock was not, in fact, pitching around Pujols. He told my friend and colleague Adam McCalvy that it was actually more like the opposite. He was so jacked up to try to get the superstar out, that he just missed the strike zone.
“If anything I was trying to be a little more aggressive,” Braddock said. “There was a little more excitement. He’s up there to battle for his team in that situation and I wanted to come in and battle for our team. I ended up walking him, but it ended up working out. I had to go right after Holliday.”
Still, it led to an extended conversation with several people on Twitter (I’m at @MatthewHLeach, come on down if you want) about facing Holliday with runners in scoring position. And it seems that a lot of people still are judging Holliday — not expressing frustration, but actually judging the player he is — based on 31 at-bats in April.
I ask of you, look at the bigger picture. Whether it’s Holliday or any number of other topics, when you’re talking about baseball, look at the bigger picture. Holliday has nearly 1,000 ABs that say he’s a good hitter with RISP. He even has 35 since the start of May that say he’s pretty decent.
This is not a positive-negative thing. I feel the same way about people writing Jaime Garcia in for Rookie of the Year, or justifying the Aaron Miles signing because he started a key rally on Saturday.
Moreover, it’s not that you don’t have the right to be frustrated — of COURSE you do. It’s not that Holliday has delivered in big situations the way the Cardinals hoped he would — frankly, I think he’d admit that overall, he hasn’t.
These things are true. Holliday is not above criticism, nor should he be. You want to yell and scream, hey, be my guest. That’s part of being a fan. But be very, very careful about making that leap from “I’m SO frustrated that Matt Holliday didn’t drive in that run” to “Matt Holliday is a CHOKER and that’s a TERRIBLE DEAL.”
More and more, I read tweets and emails and I hear people talking in the park or on the radio or wherever, and it’s just those kinds of black-and-white assessments based on tiny samples. “Holliday’s a choker.” “It’s a terrible contract.” Etc etc etc.
Folks, this is just silly. No 30 at-bats — or 50 at-bats or 150 at-bats — tell you what a baseball player really is. They’re a snapshot. Whether a guy is torrid or icy-cold, if you make up your mind based on that few games and at-bats, you’re probably going to make a mistake.
This is a long-view game. It has to be, or you’ll drive yourself crazy.
Stat of the day: Colby Rasmus ranks fifth in the National League in slugging percentage (.569), sixth in on-base percentage (.405) and third in OPS (.974).
Stat of the day, 2: Rasmus has grounded into one double play all year.
Stat of the day, 3: Jaime Garcia ranks third in the National League in ground out/air out ratio at 2.94, behind only Tim Hudson and Derek Lowe.
Fun with double situational splits: In night games on the road, Yadier Molina is batting .345 with a .415 on-base percentage and a .414 slugging percentage.
And, finally, the playlist:
I was given a little grief by a club employee recently for complaining about the music at Busch Stadium. So, in the name of fairness, here are some good tunes that have been played here recently, or are played here regularly:
Cheap Trick, “Surrender”
The Police, “Message In A Bottle”
Pearl Jam, “The Fixer”
Outkast, “Hey Ya”
Beastie Boys, “Brass Monkey”
-M.
Note of the night/Stat of the day, June 2
Note of the night: If you bring up patience or drawing walks or even on-base percentage to Tony La Russa, there’s a decent chance you’re going to get a somewhat dismissive answer. It’s not that he devalues OBP — though he values it less than, say, I do. It’s that he feels that in at least some cases, an emphasis on patience and walks can put hitters in a bad spot.
He doesn’t want hitters going up thinking “walk” any more than he wants them going up thinking “home run.” I think his reaction to the idea is overly strong, but I see where he’s coming from.
Instead, the manager’s mantra is a simple one: swing at strikes. He wants his hitters to have a good strike zone, to lay off pitches out of the zone and be aggressive with good, hittable strikes.
For once, that’s what the Cardinals did on Wednesday. The outcome may not have reflected it, as four runs is not a total that jumps off the page. But if you watched the game, you saw hitters laying off pitches out of the zone, forcing Sam LeCure to come over the plate and taking good swings when he did.
As far as the approach, and the swings, and the contact it was one of the better games I’ve seen this team have this year. And it came in a situation that sometimes befuddles the Cards: facing a rookie with only one previous Major League game.
You may look at a box score, see four runs, and be unimpressed. But I think that’s misleading.
“We did a nice job, but he [LeCure] did a good job,” La Russa said. “He really made a lot of pitches behind in the count that were quality. … He did a good job. The catcher worked him really well. So we didn’t get much from him, three runs. He did a good job. But we were working.”
Stat of the day: Albert Pujols has reached base at least twice in each of the last four games, and 13 times total in those four games, bringing his on-base percentage up from .409 to .431.
Fun with double situational splits: Both of Felipe Lopez’s home runs this year have come at home against left-handed pitchers.
And, finally, the playlist:
Sleigh Bells, “Kids”
LCD Soundsystem, “Disco Infiltrator”
Bloc Party, “Helicopter”
Tame Impala, “Solitude Is Bliss”
M.I.A., “Born Free”
-M.
Note of the night/Stat of the day, June 1
Note of the night: You may have noticed that the bulk of the damage done against Cardinals pitching on Tuesday night came at the hands of a familiar hitter: Scott Rolen. The former Cardinal hit two home runs and a double to spearhead the Reds’ attack against P.J. Walters and the St. Louis bullpen.
Asked after the game about Rolen, La Russa had a comment that could be taken a couple of different ways.
“He’s healthy and we have seen that,” La Russa said. “He’s an outstanding player when he’s healthy. He’s playing outstanding for them.
“Probably their manager’s getting more out of him than I did. I know people are going to speculate that and it’s probably true. I’m sure it’s true. When he’s healthy — and he’s healthy – he’s an outstanding player.”
Now, you can take that as a really direct shot across Rolen’s bow, essentially accusing him of dogging it. Or you can take it as an attempt at the sort of self-deprecation that TLR does sometimes.
My read on it was that he did not intend the more sinister suggestion. Other people I asked in the press box disagreed. I’m sure some of you saw it on TV, so I’d be curious what you thought.
Stat of the day: The Cardinals lost for only the third time all year in a game where Colby Rasmus scored a run. They’re 19-3 when Rasmus scores. By contrast, they’re 18-6 when Albert Pujols scores, and 17-6 when Matt Holliday scores.
Fun with double situational splits: David Freese is batting .409 and slugging .667 against right-handers at home this year.
And, finally, the playlist:
This is an exact five-song sequence that came up on my iPhone this afternoon. Good stuff.
The Hold Steady, “The Weekenders”
Drive-By Truckers, “Home Field Advantage”
Guns N’ Roses, “Used To Love Her”
U2, “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For” (live, off “Rattle & Hum”)
Blur, “There’s No Other Way”
-M.
Note of the night/Stat of the day, May 31
Note of the night: David Freese arrived in St. Louis with a deserved reputation for opposite-field power. It’s where he likes to hit, and it’s where he usually does his best hitting. In the early going in 2010, it’s where he was hitting.
But this is the Major Leagues, and when a player has success doing one particular thing, opponents will adjust. Pitchers began to see that Freese was hitting the ball hard to right field, so they started challenging him inside.
He has responded, and quite nicely.
On Monday, Freese doubled to left and drilled a hard liner to the track in left. It’s part of a continuing pattern lately, as he’s pulled the ball more. He’s not looking to do it, but he’s willing to do it.
“Some teams are trying to come in a little more, but that’s just the kind of adjustment I have to make,” he said. “If they’re going to come in, I’ve got to start pulling the ball. that’s how it’s got to go.
“You’ve still got to have an approach. When you start seeing teams over and over again, you’ve got to have a pretty good game plan.”
His willingness to be adaptable has caught his manager’s eye too.
“One reason he’s got a chance to be really tough is he uses [all fields],” TLR said. “You pitch him one way he goes that way. You may get him in there once, but you go back away he goes away. He is legit.”
Stat of the day, 1: As of 9 p.m. CT on Monday night, the Cardinals have the best run differential in the National League at plus-51.
Stat of the day, 2: St. Louis ranks third in the National League in walks with 195, and second in doubles with 105.
Fun with double situational splits: In home games in May, Freese batted .375 with a .434 on-base percentage and a .646 slugging percentage.
And, finally, the playlist:
New Order, “Round and Round”
Soul Coughing, “White Girl”
Stone Roses, “This Is The One”
Garbage, “Push It”
Radiohead, “Let Down”
-M.
Note of the night/Stat of the day, May 30
Note of the night: You’ve got a game story centered on Albert Pujols. You’ve got a sidebar story on Albert Pujols. How about a note of the night on Albert Pujols?
When Pujols goes deep three times, then talks for 15 minutes afterward, you better believe you’re going to get a lot of Pujols on this blog and site, and from everyone else who covered it. And this afternoon, Pujols was engaging, thoughtful, funny — one of the better interviews he’s given in recent memory.
Even though Pujols was frustrated by the questions and speculation about his less-productive May, he acknowledged that by his own standards he’s been struggling. But he said he’s feeling good physically, and strongly downplayed any issues regarding his right knee, which he tweaked a few weeks ago.
“I’m still in the lineup and playing every day,” he said, when asked if he was healthy. “I told you guys in Spring Training, I told you guys early in the year. You never play this game 100 percent. Every day something bothers you. it could be a hamstring, it could be a shoulder, anything. It’s hard to play this game 100 percent. Not even the first game of Spring Training.
“I just don’t like when people try to figure out what’s going on with me. Maybe I’m struggling at the plate and hitting .305. Maybe because I haven’t hit a home run in so many at-bats, people try to figure out that.”
It’s worth noting that I haven’t seen any kind of wrap on Pujols’ knee in recent days, and that’s something he would have if he’d been getting treatment on it.
As for whether he was worried about his production, the answer is pretty much a no.
“This is my 11th season as a professional athlete, and I know what I’m capable of doing,” he said. “I believe that [God] has blessed me with this great career, and all of a sudden it’s not going to go away just because you struggle. You figure out. You find yourself out.
But, again, he didn’t deny that the production hasn’t been there.
“You obviously know when you’re chasing balls out of the strike zone and you’re not patient,” he said. “You feel that. Maybe sometimes you want to push it a little, because you think it’s not going too good. But I don’t think I have felt that this year. Believe it or not.”
Stat of the day 1: Eleven of Pujols’ 12 home runs have come on the road.
Stat of the day 2: From June 1 of last year through the end of May this year, Adam Wainwright has made 34 starts, going 21-8 with a 2.29 ERA. He has 230 strikeouts and 59 walks in that span. In 23 of those 34 starts, he’s gone at least seven innings with no more than two earned runs.
Fun with double situational splits: Skip Schumaker is batting .289 with a .372 on-base percentage at home in May.
And, finally, the playlist:
The Donnas, “Hot Pants”
Van Halen, “Eruption”
Kings of Leon, “Molly’s Chambers”
Rolling Stones, “Respectable”
Nirvana, “Sliver”
-M.
Stats of the day, May 28
No note of the night today, so I apologize for that. As usual, to make it up, let’s squeeze in a few different stats of the day.
Stat of the Day 1: The Cardinals are 95-41 when Chris Carpenter starts for them, a .698 winning percentage — equivalent to a 113-49 regular season. Over that same span, since the start of the 2004 season, they’re 476-408 when anyone else starts for them — a .538 winning percentage, equivalent to an 87-75 regular season.
Stat of the Day 2: Ryan Ludwick is 3-for-33 with four walks, 11 strikeouts and no extra-base hits when he leads off an inning this year: a line of .091/.189/.091. In all bases-empty situations, he’s at a better but still dismal .208/.270/.358. With runners in scoring position, though, he’s at .417/.512/.778.
Stat of the Day 3: Jason Motte has 15 strikeouts and one walk over his last 12 appearances, spanning 11 innings.
Fun with double situational splits: Brendan Ryan is batting .353 with a .450 on-base percentage and a .529 slugging percentage in day games against left-handed pitchers.
And, finally, the playlist:
It’s a Chicago special, leading with Kanye’s outstanding new track.
Kanye West, “Power”
Ministry, “N.W.O.”
Rise Against, “Long Forgotten Sons”
Smashing Pumpkins, “Bodies”
My Life With The Thrill Kill Kult, “After The Flesh”
-M.
Note of the night/Stat of the day, May 23
Note of the night: As TLR went through his postgame news conference on Sunday, fielding questions and singling out heroes, he responded to a question about his relief corps and started to add an answer to a question that hadn’t been asked yet. Then he decided to wait.
The next question was mine, about his starting pitcher on the afternoon. It turns out, that was the question that the manager was waiting for. What’s odd is that he was waiting to sing Chris Carpenter’s praises, when I was asking because I didn’t think Carpenter didn’t look sharp at all.
To my eye, and according to Gameday, Carpenter’s location just wasn’t very good. He was consistently in the top half of the strike zone, and that simply isn’t where he operates. That’s not Carpenter’s style. So it was strange to hear both manager and pitcher with such a different take.
“I really felt that the ball was coming out of his hand outstanding,” La Russa said. “He had a couple 0-2 misses and they capitalized. And their catcher takes the ball on the outside black and hits it out, that’s great hitting. He pitched around a couple errors. I really thought that Carp had good stuff and located, made a lot of pitches, kept us in the game.
“Overall, I really thought the ball was coming out of his hand very well.”
And here’s what Carpenter said, a comment I also noted in the game story: “Interesting enough, it really was the best I’ve felt all year. I made a couple bad pitches for the homers, but I felt like my stuff was good. I felt like my cutter was better. my command was better. it was a nice win for us and I was happy with the way I felt. … I felt like I was locating well.”
So, honestly, what do you do with that? If the Cardinals had lost the game, I was committed to a story all about how they need Carpenter and Wainwright more than ever, and Carpenter just didn’t have his command on Sunday. Would have been a tough story to write, given the quotes.
What did y’all think, then? Was he overall sharp and just hurt by a couple mistakes? Or was he missing his spots on a consistent basis?
This is one of the challenges all of us sometimes face. Our own observations sometimes clash with those of the players/coaches/managers. Sometimes I re-assess after hearing the comments. Sometimes I soften it a little bit, because someone’s comment casts something in a different light that I hadn’t thought of.
But sometimes, like today, I come back up and I still disagree. I just didn’t find Carpenter to have looked all that sharp. His velocity was good. His stuff was good. But his location did not look good.
Stat of the day: The Cardinals lead the league in bullpen ERA at 2.92 and are tied for the fewest blown saves with three.
Fun with double situational splits: Six of Albert Pujols’ eight home runs this year have come against right-handers on the road.
And, finally, the playlist:
Ride, “Vapour Trail”
Stone Roses, “I Wanna Be Adored”
Charlatans UK, “The Only One I Know”
Catherine Wheel, “Black Metallic”
Jesus and Mary Chain, “Just Like Honey”
-M.
Note of the night/Stat of the day, May 21
Note of the night: It’s more Brad Penny, of course. I have 900 words or so on the topic up on the site now, but there’s still more to go into.
Most notably, there’s the fact that Penny felt something after his last start and didn’t notify the club. Those of you who watched the postgame probably noticed that TLR said that his mood “stinks.” And when asked if Penny’s injury was the cause, he said, “Yeah, that’s part of it.”
And while the manager didn’t elaborate beyond that, it can’t have sat well that Penny pitched while knowing that he had something amiss physically.
“The first day after Cincinnati, it didn’t feel that good,” Penny said. “The second day, it felt a little better. It was getting better and better, and I didn’t feel it at all in the bullpen [on Friday evening].”
Penny threw a side session between starts, and said he felt the injury “a little bit” at that time.
Other Penny-related stuff: According to my friend Will Carroll, Baseball Prospectus’ injury guy, 4-6 weeks is a fairly reasonable time frame for a pitcher with a lat injury. … P.J. Walters, who is en route from California as I write this, was absolutely lights-out in three starts at Memphis this year, allowing one earned run in 18 2/3 innings with 23 strikeouts and three walks.
Stat of the day: The Cardinals’ slugging percentage, as a TEAM, went up by seven full points on Friday night, from .400 to .407.
Fun with double situational splits: David Freese is batting .464 (13-for-28) with a .500 on-base percentage and a .929 slugging percentage in day games at home this year, and against lefties at home his line is .444/.524/.556.
And, finally, the playlist:
Soundgarden, “Tighter & Tighter”
Living Colour, “Wall”
Metallica, “The Four Horsemen”
Alice In Chains, “Would”
System Of A Down, “Jet Pilot”
-M.
Note of the night/Stat of the day, May 20
Note of the night: Brendan Ryan actually had some fun on Thursday. He got a hit, drew a walk, played solid defense and smiled on the field. All of those things count as progress for the Cardinals infielder.
Still, he’s not giving up on ways to try to break his early-season funk. He said he took “about 100″ swings left-handed in the batting cage on Wednesday — not because he’s trying to switch-hit, but just because, well, because he’s Brendan Ryan.
And, in response to a clamor from fans and teammates — he’s bringing back the mustache. Ryan was wearing his “Respect the Redbird ‘Stache” t-shirt in the clubhouse on Thursday afternoon, and showing the first signs of growth on his upper lip — though he joked that the full effect may not be seen for another month.
“I’m doing anything possible to make some good things happen, so whatever it takes,” Ryan told reporters after Thursday’s game.
Stat of the day: Matt Holliday has not hit a home run at home this year and is slugging .323 at Busch Stadium.
Fun with double situational splits: Felipe Lopez is 2-for-15 (.133) against right-handed pitchers at home this year, though he does have four walks for a .316 on-base percentage.
And, finally, a playlist for another gloomy, rainy day:
Sugar, “Panama City Motel”
Blakroc, “Hard Times”
The Postal Service, “The District Sleeps Alone Tonight”
Aimee Mann, “How Am I Different”
Depeche Mode, “Sister Of Night”
-M.
Matthew Leach
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